Test

Often called the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, the gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken notion that if an outcome—subject to identical and independent probabilities—has happened less frequently than expected, it becomes more likely to occur moving forward (and vice versa).

This error in thinking is commonly seen in gambling, where a person might assume the next dice roll is likelier than normal to show a six simply because sixes have recently been appearing less often than anticipated.

Examples

• Coin flips: Believing that a “tails” is “due” because of a series of “heads.”
• Roulette spins: Expecting red to appear after a series of black spins.